Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 20.810835 24.995114 29.588364 34.976811 41.095975 47.800170 55.671034
2025-10-12 14.991933 20.562175 27.286799 35.877923 46.429442 58.831547 74.367054
2025-10-19 11.602852 17.717404 25.672233 36.507580 50.588923 67.968157 90.708329
2025-10-26 9.446554 15.845299 24.718901 37.460943 54.783877 76.990123 107.023326
2025-11-02 7.466531 13.750404 23.023117 37.016824 56.843670 83.137331 119.746920
2025-11-09 6.121507 12.303279 21.959073 37.188896 59.553710 90.080944 133.629545
2025-11-16 4.983046 10.937246 20.773982 36.960438 61.541606 95.997172 146.244937
2025-11-23 3.945487 9.510796 19.257472 35.998132 62.280247 100.084831 156.395687
2025-11-30 3.433460 8.943202 19.059062 37.031513 65.982760 108.455529 172.736610
2025-12-07 2.784716 7.951661 17.972891 36.473360 67.141368 113.117443 183.917314
2025-12-14 2.363326 7.338539 17.471739 36.814460 69.674474 119.845626 198.233242
2025-12-21 1.814732 6.284495 15.971651 35.243837 68.974477 121.616698 205.292388
2025-12-28 1.595044 6.006495 16.022901 36.562305 73.289454 131.507551 225.172744
2026-01-04 1.362265 5.631124 15.827128 37.419287 76.906387 140.518760 244.145495
2026-01-11 1.151426 5.246299 15.544573 38.064986 80.168384 149.068041 262.663321
2026-01-18 0.993866 4.967206 15.449238 39.049309 84.050625 158.722859 283.141498
2026-01-25 0.786848 4.439342 14.680418 38.590633 85.301110 164.128322 297.151246
2026-02-01 0.645711 4.078720 14.249335 38.768341 87.686730 171.445876 314.333358
2026-02-08 0.514058 3.685105 13.658216 38.532397 89.262610 177.436762 329.541194
2026-02-15 0.384771 3.216858 12.769653 37.538442 89.316812 180.825245 340.632616
2026-02-22 0.333533 3.087237 12.800864 38.605802 93.378480 191.170001 363.228894
2026-03-01 0.253867 2.748004 12.151002 38.029323 94.173098 195.877386 376.720518
2026-03-08 0.206765 2.556190 11.907839 38.381630 96.815936 203.875085 395.806082